Can Aaron Judge Break The Home Run Record?

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Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge took the day off last Wednesday August 3, 2022 against the Seattle Mariners to rest before departing for a three-city road trip through St. Louis, Seattle, and Boston. Once the Yankees began their three-game battle in St. Louis on Friday, the team had completed 106 games, with 56 to go.

Aaron Judge had 43 home runs before that trip, which is more than any player has had in that many games in the past half century. This means that Judge could have a record-breaking season, but is he good enough to break the single-season home run record? Let’s take a look deeper look at this.

The all-time season home run record is held by Barry Bonds with 73 in 2001. Next is Mark McGwire at 70 in 1998, then Sammy Sosa at 66 in 1998, followed by the legendary Babe Ruth at 60 in 1927.

Judge is on track to join Ruth and the others and make history for himself, for the Yankees, and maybe even break the all-time single-season home run record.

If we do the math, Judge already has 43 home runs, which means that to tie for the third-most homers in a single season (Sammy Sosa with 66), the Yankee slugger needs 23 more home runs. To tie for the second-most with Mark McGwire, Judge only needs 27 home runs. And to tie for the most all-time single-season home runs with Barry Bonds, he needs 30 homers.

If Judge wants to break the single-season record record, he’ll need 31 home runs in the Yankees remaining games, as of August 5. The question is: can Judge eclipse those marks? Does he have a proven track record to back it up?

Judge already has 43 homers in 106 team games, which is nothing short of outstanding.

How well does this stack up to the other great single-season home run sluggers? The answer is, pretty darn good.

Judge has the fourth-most home runs in history through 106 team games:

45 – Barry Bonds, 2001 – total 73
45 – Mark McGwire, 1998 – total 70
44 – Babe Ruth, 1921 – total 59
43 – Aaron Judge, 2022 – total ???
43 – Babe Ruth, 1928 – total 54

Judge trails Bonds who competed in 99 of 106 San Francisco’s games that year. His pace also lags behind McGwire’s best homer season, and also trails Ruth’s 1921 season.

It’s easy to see that Judge could potentially break one of sport’s most hallowed records. What does this mean for the Yankees?

As stated earlier, the Yankees still have 56 games to go which means a lot of things could happen between now and the end of the season. As a team, they are on pace to reach the playoffs, which could actually hinder Judge’s efforts. After all, the Yankees are joint-favorites for the World Series in the current Coral betting odds, and as such, could have the AL East wrapped up long before the end of the season, meaning rest days for Judge before the playoffs. This could reduce what would have been an all-time home run record to a simple “great season.” Hopefully for Yankee fans and baseball fans who wish to see history, this won’t happen.

It’s projected that Judge will get 200 at-bats for the rest of the year. In order to hit 23 homers and tie Sosa, he’d have to hit one home run approximately every 8.7 at-bats. When we look at his career record, Judge has hit a home run once every 12.2 at-bats. With all personal opinions aside, the math in this analysis tells us that Judge is far from reaching Sosa’s record. But who knows, Judge’s average can change, and he has 56 games to prove it!

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