One of the highlights of the Major League Baseball (MLB) season is the betting action it garners among fans and bettors alike. Whether casual or experienced, MLB baseball is a go-to sport for millions of bettors to win money by making accurate predictions. However, amid all that excitement, punters can sometimes easily get carried away and make mistakes. These pitfalls can be costly, reducing players’ winning chances or resulting in substantial losses.
So, dive in as we explore some of the most common mistakes in MLB betting and how to avoid them.
Betting Without Research and Analysis
A major mistake many MLB bettors often make when placing bets is failure to conduct adequate research before placing wagers. Without a thorough understanding of the team dynamics, player performance, conditions involved, and other factors that can influence game outcome, you will essentially be betting blind. And this can cost you considerably as you are bound to place losing wagers more often than not.
So, always invest enough time and effort in thorough analysis before putting money on any bet. Researching the teams’ recent and past performances, pitching matchups, injuries, head-to-head statistics, etc., can help make more informed predictions. This increases your chances of winning in the long run. You can read more here about placing informed wagers on baseball events and other sports.
Ignoring or Overvaluing Home-Field Advantage
Home-field advantage is a concept that cannot be underestimated in any sport, and baseball is no exception. From the familiar conditions of their home field to the thousands of fans supporting them, the home team often tends to benefit positively during MLB games. Yet many MLB bettors make the mistake of ignoring the home-field advantage when placing their bets.
On the flip side, some bettors also make the mistake of overvaluing the home-field advantage in their MLB bets. While the home field sometimes influences the outcome of games, it does not guarantee that the home team will always win. In fact, MLB statistics show that home teams only win about 54% of the time in regular seasons (though the number is usually higher during playoffs). This means that about 46% of home teams lose. So, while you shouldn’t ignore it outright, you combine it with other performance factors before making a decision.
Starting Pitcher Bias
Another mistake several MLB bettors make when placing bets online is putting too much emphasis on the starting pitcher. Don’t get us wrong; there is no denying that the starting pitcher plays a crucial role in a team’s winning chances. However, there have been many significant changes in how baseball is played over the years, and a starting pitcher can no longer pitch eight to nine innings like in the good old days.
So, it’s essential to factor in other moving parts of the game before making your betting decision. You must never forget that baseball is still a team sport, and vital factors like each team’s bullpen performance, defence, offensive production, etc., also largely contribute to game outcomes. So, take a more holistic approach when making your predictions on MLB baseball games.
Always Backing the Bookie Favorite
Many MLB bettors, especially beginners, often instinctively concentrate their bets on the favourites every time while disregarding the underdog. While it’s true that the favourite team is the favourite for a reason, the perceived stronger team doesn’t necessarily always win.
It’s best to use the available statistical data to determine the chances of winning during a game. Numbers don’t lie. If you find any reason why you think an underdog might cause an upset and win, don’t hesitate to back them. The best part of backing the underdogs is that you can make bigger profits with these bets than you would on the favourites.
Placing Bets with no Bankroll Management
A potentially disastrous mistake that many bettors, be they new or experts, tend to make when placing their MLB bets is ignoring bankroll management. Effective bankroll management is the cornerstone of any successful sports betting plan. Without it, even the most experienced punters may quickly find themselves in financial ruin.
So, it’s essential to set a clear bankroll management plan before engaging in MLB bets. Determine the amount of money you can allocate to your betting activities and set daily, weekly, and even monthly limits to the usage. You should also divide the funds into smaller units and determine how much you can wager on any single bet. But you must also make it a point to always stick to your bankroll management plan.
Other Mistakes You Should Avoid in MLB Betting
Here are other common mistakes you should avoid when placing MLB bets:
- Not comparing and shopping around for the best lines
- Betting on streaks blindly
- Betting on teams based on past reputation
- Emotional betting decisions based on personal bias about teams or players
- Chasing losses
Identifying the common mistakes that plague the MLB betting scene can be a game-changer. After all, avoiding these pitfalls will help you make more informed and profitable betting decisions. This will, in turn, help you minimize losses, maximize profit, and achieve success in the long run.
