On January 21, the results of the Baseball Writers Association of America voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame will be revealed. Any player receiving at least 75 percent support will be elected.
This guide will examine every candidate on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for 2025. Any former player elected will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were chosen by a special veterans committee earlier this month.
Here’s our preview of the candidates, and your Guide to the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot.
Ichiro Suzuki
The all-time hits leader in professional baseball, Ichiro Suzuki was a singular talent and one of the most modest superstars the game has ever had. He will become the first player born in Japan to be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
Ichiro won’t quote achieve unanimous selection, which will irritate some observers. But it doesn’t matter: 75 percent of 100 percent, he’s a legend. Next July, Cooperstown will be inundated with fans from Japan making the journey to see Suzuki accept his plaque. It will be a watershed moment in the history of the Hall, and given the fact that we’ll see Shohei Ohtani making a speech in Cooperstown someday in the future, Ichiro’s election is the mark of a new era in this global game.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 99% (1st Year on Ballot)
Billy Wagner
In the last three elections, Wagner’s support has soared by 27.4%. He missed by five votes last year. The former left-handed closer is poised to join the small legion of relief pitchers in Cooperstown. In a relatively weak year for first-timers on the ballot, Wagner should easily clear the 75% mark.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 80% (10th Year on Ballot)
CC Sabathia
The last starting pitcher elected on the first ballot was Roy Halladay in 2019. Sabathia has 48 more wins than Doc did, but a little fewer WAR. Sabathia is the all-time American League strikeout leader for left-handed pitchers, and he was an ace for a World Series champion. He has a lot going for him as a candidate, but his election on the first ballot won’t be a certainty.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 79% (1st Year on Ballot)
Andruw Jones
There are five former outfielders returning to the ballot in 2025: Torii Hunter, Carlos Beltrán, Manny Ramírez, Bobby Abreu, and Jones. Of the three center fielders in that group, Jones has the cleanest case and the best credentials. Since his third year on the BBWAA ballot, Jones has shot from 19.4% to 61.6%. The question now: has the former Brave outfielder found the ceiling of his support, or can he keep trudging his way toward election? He needs to pick up about 50 votes.
Defensive stats reveal Jones to be one of the 4-5 best outfielders in history, placing him in a group that includes Willie Mays and Tris Speaker. But, there are voters still fixated on batting average, and others who see the dramatic drop-off Jones suffered in the second half of his career. Through age 29, Jones had 58 WAR (more than Duke Snider or Andre Dawson). But after age 30, he only had 4 WAR.
Still, the Hall has elected others who petered out early, like Kirby Puckett. Why the voters can’t see how great Jones was is puzzling. He has three years remaining to get the 50 or so votes he needs, but he won’t get them all in 2025.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 67% (8th Year on Ballot)
Carlos Beltrán
In his first year on the BBWAA ballot, Beltrán was 12 points behind fellow center fielder Andruw Jones. Last year he narrowed that gap to four points. This year, we think Beltrán will keep steadily climbing, but we’re not sure he has as broad a base of support as Jones. Eventually, Beltrán will get into the Hall of Fame. No player who has received 50% support has failed to make it later in some manner.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 60% (3rd Year on Ballot)
Chase Utley
In a year with a sort of weak ballot, we expect Utley to improve on his impressive total of 28.8% in his first appearance. His support may also impact another player on the ballot. More on that below.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 39% (2nd Year on Ballot)
Álex Rodríguez
It’s pretty clear that there are about 135 voters who are willing to hold their nose and vote for ARod. Like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Mark McGwire, Álex Rodríguez will never have his day in Cooperstown.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 35% (4th Year on Ballot)
Manny Ramírez
Manny has about 125 people in his camp. That’s less than half of what he needs. In 2026 his name will thankfully disappear forever from the BBWAA ballot. His only hope is a future committee years and years from now that doesn’t give a damn about ethics.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 35% (9th Year on Ballot)
Jimmy Rollins
From 37 to 50 to 57 votes, Jimmy Rollins is creeping in the right direction. The more support his teammate and double play partner Chase Utley receives, the more it helps Rollins. We don’t expect he will ever get to 75% on this ballot, but J-Roll will almost certainly stick for 10 years like other excellent shortstops like Dave Concepcion and Alan Trammell. For his sake, he must hope his fate is more like the latter than the former.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 20% (1st Year on Ballot)
Félix Hernández
One could make a compelling Hall of Fame argument for Hernández based on the Koufax Precedent. But, the chances of his excellent pitcher being elected are slim to slimmer and none. That’s too bad, because he’s one of the 100 greatest pitchers in baseball history.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 16% (1st Year on Ballot)
Bobby Abreu
There’s not much difference between Vladimir Guerrero and Abreu by the numbers. Yes, really. But, Vlad and Bobby are miles apart in the intangibles and fame portion of the Hall of Fame argument. Abreu is in a category with players like Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker: on paper by the advanced statistics, they are qualified for the Hall of Fame, and better than several players already in; but none of those three were especially noteworthy league-wide when they played.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 16% (6th Year on Ballot)
Andy Pettitte
Cheaters never prosper. And Pettitte will keep paying the price. Eventually, he will likely slip off the ballot.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 14% (7th Year on Ballot)
Dustin Pedroia
After Ichiro and Sabathia, Pedroia is the only other first-year candidate guaranteed to be earn at least 5 percent support. Statistically, there’s not a lot of difference between Pedroia and Ian Kinsler, his contemporary at second base, in the same league. Ultimately, there simply wasn’t enough of a career for Petey to make Cooperstown.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 13% (1st Year on Ballot)
Mark Buehrle
A very good, dependable pitcher, in the mold of Dave Stieb, but won’t get the support to be a serious candidate.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 11% (1st Year on Ballot)
Francisco Rodríguez
Sort of the Bobby Abreu of relievers.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 9% (3rd Year on Ballot)
David Wright
There is and never has been a New York bias for the Hall of Fame. Many of the very best candidates who are not in the Hall, played in New York. Wright doesn’t deserve a plaque, but it’s appropriate for his name to stay on the ballot for annual evaluation.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 8% (2nd Year on Ballot)
Torii Hunter
A Hall of Fame leader and teammate, but doesn’t quite have the credentials for Cooperstown. We have Hunter 40th all-time at center field, in a group with Paul Blair, Ellis Burks, and Curt Flood.
PROJECTED TOTAL: 8% (5th Year on Ballot)
Less Than 5%: The One-and-Done’s
These ten former players can celebrate the fact that their careers were noteworthy enough to earn them a place on the Hall of Fame ballot.
Of these former players, Ian Kinsler is most likely to garner the 5% required to stay on the ballot for a second time.
