Predicting the next five Baseball Hall of Fame Elections

Of recent Hall of Fame elections by the writers, the 2025 election may end up being one of the most pivotal. That’s because three players were swept into Cooperstown, clearing the ballot. As a result, with only a pair of obvious first ballot candidates coming in the next few years, the voting the next few years could benefit players down ballot.

2026: Beltrán and Jones

Among position players without nagging steroid issues, outfielders Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones are quite obviously the best candidates that will return to the 2026 BBWAA ballot. Both topped 65 percent support in 2025, and Beltrán broke the 70 percent mark. No player to have received as much as 70 percent support by the writers has failed to eventually be elected.

Given that Beltrán hit the 70 percent mark in just his third appearance on the writers’ ballot, it’s nearly a guarantee that the talented switch-hitter will get his favorable Cooperstown phone call in January of 2026.

Jones has steadily (and deservedly) crawled his way from less than 10 percent support in years one and two on the BBWAA ballot. 2026 will be his ninth on the ballot. He’s now arguably the most deserving player who will return to the ballot in 2026. Jones ranks among the top five defensive center fielders in baseball history. He was also a force at the plate, and part of an iconic Atlanta dynasty. With no obvious first-ballot HOFers coming to the ballot in ’26, Jones should find enough support to jump the nine percentage points he needs for election. About time.

The best first timer who will appear in 2026 is former left-handed starting pitcher Cole Hamels. The southpaw had a huge impact on the success of the Phillies’ championship run in 2008. He ranks among the 100 Greatest Pitchers in Baseball History. But there are other lefties who have better or similar credentials who have never sniffed Cooperstown, namely Ron Guidry, Mickey Lolich, and Chuck Finley. We don’t see Hamels doing better than about 5-8 percent in year one.

One and Done We Have a Soft Spot For: For about two weeks in October of 2015, Daniel Murphy hit the baseball like he was Babe Ruth. The Mets’ infielder smacked seven home runs in 14 postseason games, helping to carry the team to the Fall Classic. His .296 batting average is superb, but only about 1,500 hits and 138 home runs will keep him well below the 5 percent needed to stay on the ballot next January. But we love Murph’s place in New York baseball history.

2027: Buster Alone

Former Giants’ catcher Buster Posey will debut on the BBWAA ballot in 2027. He and former pitcher Jon Lester are the best new candidates that year. There was a time when catchers, even deserving ones, were forced to wait a bit to get into Cooperstown. Hell, Gary Carter wasn’t elected until his sixth appearance on the ballot(!).

But that’s seemed to change: Pudge Rodriguez waltzed into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot despite some whispers of steroid use. Joe Mauer, who like Buster Posey, failed to reach significant career statistical milestones, was elected in his first year of eligibility in 2024.

Posey doesn’t have a career .300 batting average or batting titles like Mauer. But he won an MVP award, and he represents the 2010-2014 Giants dynasty. Buster will likely be the only player from that team (which won three World Series in a five-year stretch) to earn election to the Hall. He has this wonderful feather in his cap: Posey is one of only three catchers to win the Rookie of the Year Award and MVP in his career. The others are Johnny Bench and Thurman Munson (who should be in Cooperstown).

We’re not 100 percent that Posey will et the 75 percent needed in year one, but given the relative weakness of the ballot for 2027, we’ll say he will.

One and Done We Have a Soft Spot For: He’ll likely always be the Eli to brother Corey’s Peyton, but Kyle Seager was a good ballplayer. He was overshadowed by several better third basemen, but Seager is arguably the best pure third sacker the Mariners ever had, and that counts for somethin.

2028: Phat Albert and Utley

It seems likely that former second baseman Chase Utley will eventually earn his place in Cooperstown. He advanced by 11 percent in 2025, his second appearance on the ballot. The former second baseman now rests at just under 40 percent. He’s moving quicker than Andruw Jones did, and with a fairly weak ballot for the next few years, Utley will likely be the choice of many voters who will follow the lead and carry him to the 75 percent needed.

Catcher Yadier Molina will debut in 2028. Some people feel he will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Many people believe Yadier Molina will make the Hall eventually. We here at BaseballEgg are not huge fans (Molina was about as valuable as Jim Sundberg and Jason Kendall), but we don’t have a problem with “the Ozzie Smith of catchers” being elected. We don’t think his hitting stats will help him get to 75 percent in year one.

One and Done We Have a Soft Spot For: Marvelous shortstop Andrelton Simmons.

2029: Miggy

There will be five candidates appearing in 2029 who should stick on the ballot or be elected immediately (Miggy for sure). They are Cabrera, Joey Votto, Zack Greinke, Josh Donaldson, and Adam Wainwright. Four of them topped 50 WAR.

Votto will be an interesting case. He’s a top 10 first baseman of all-time, and we have him rated among the top 100 players in baseball history. Our ratings system has Miguel Cabrera at 293.5 and Votto at 291.9 based on career, peak, and prime value. But there’s more to the Hall of Fame than stats and ratings systems.

Votto wasn’t even loved by everyone who cheered for the Reds. He was often criticized (unfairly) for being too selective at the plate, and not driving in runs. Some people never forgave Joey for not being Johnny Bench and Tony Perez. To some voters, it won’t help that Votto had “only” 2,135 hits and 356 home runs, missing out on 2,500 and 400 milestones etc.

Like it or not, corner infielders are held to a different standard than other position players. It took a long time for Perez, Fred McGriff, and Gil Hodges to make the Hall of Fame, for example. Their only crime seemed to be that they weren’t Willie McCovey or Lou Gehrig.

Many folks love Wainwright, and he did some excellent things. But, his credentials for Cooperstown are far below Greinke, a top 25 pitcher who probably won’t be elected, unless it’s by a committee some day. Greinke was as legit an ace as any pitcher this century. He won 225 games and has a 121 ERA+ with more just shy of 3,000 K’s and fewer than 800 walks. His 77.5 career WAR ranks 30th all-time.

One and Done We Have a Soft Spot For: Few baseball players understood that they were entertainers better than shortstop Elvis Andrus.

2030: Shutout

Any player who played their final MLB game in 2024 will be eligible for the 2030 ballot. That won’t be a big class of solid candidates. Which means candidates scrambling up the ballot should see improvement in 2030 (Votto, Felix Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins perhaps). Maybe the underrated Bobby Abreu will get a 10th year boost.

One and Done We Have a Soft Spot For: Charlie Blackmon played every game of his professional career for the Rockies and in the Colorado organization. That’s fitting: Chuck Nazty looked like he could have been a prospector in the old west. His 1,800 or so hits and 227 home runs won’t get Charlie a plaque in Cooperstown, but his name will spice up the 2030 BBWAA ballot.

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