Clayton Kershaw, the venerable ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers for more than a decade, will retire at the conclusion of the 2025 season. Given his solid season this year, we expect that Kershaw will make a start in the postseason.
Kershaw will conclude his career as a three-time Cy Young award winner, the winner of the one Most Valuable Player award, and owner of several records.
Kershaw has the fourth-highest winning percentage in MLB history. His figure (.698 as of September 19) ranks first among pitchers who debuted after 1941. He will retire having won more than 220 games, while having lost fewer than 100 games.
That tremendous accomplishment stands out among the gaudy numbers “The Klaw” has compiled. While win percentage is a team dependent stat, and Kershaw has benefitted from playing on superb teams. Including 2025, Kershaw will have pitched for 15 playoff teams in 18 seasons.
Still, even though Kershaw has been helped by having excellent teammates, his status as a great pitcher is secure. But how great?
Great Starting Pitchers of the 21st Century: The First Wave
| PITCHER | WAR | WAR7 | WAR5C | WAR3 | JAWS |
| Clayton Kershaw | 80.5 | 49.7 | 36.3 | 23.1 | 65.1 |
| Justin Verlander | 82.1 | 50.1 | 31.0 | 24.1 | 66.1 |
| Max Scherzer | 76.5 | 47.6 | 34.9 | 22.0 | 62.0 |
| Zack Greinke | 77.5 | 48.4 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 62.9 |
| Félix Hernández | 49.8 | 38.5 | 27.6 | 19.5 | 44.1 |
| Cole Hamels | 59.3 | 37.4 | 27.7 | 18.5 | 48.2 |
| Adam Wainwright | 44.9 | 36.2 | 25.6 | 18.8 | 40.8 |
| Jon Lester | 44.4 | 34.2 | 22.7 | 17.9 | 38.8 |
Each pitcher in the table above debuted between 2004 and 2008. They are in some ways the last of the workhorse starting pitcher, though all of them leaked into the era where starters pitched fewer and fewer innings. Combined, the eight pitchers in the table pitched 165 complete games, an average of about 20 per pitcher. That figure is remarkably low compared to say the best starters who debuted between 1994 and 1998. The eight best starting pitchers who debuted in that era pitched 301 complete games, or about 37 per.
In an era when starting pitchers are being asked to toss 5-6 innings per outing, Kershaw rates near the top among his peers. Only Justin Verlander, Mad Max Scherzer, and the underrated Zack Greinke can compare to Kershaw. Ultimately however, it comes down to Kershaw vs Verlander as the best starting pitcher of the 21st century, at least among the first wave. Jacob deGrom, Zach Wheeler, and Tarik Skubal will have to wait.
Verlander or Kershaw? Who was better?
Kershaw is five years younger than Justin Verlander, his primary competition as the best pitcher of the first two decades of the 21st century. Both will hoist plaques in Cooperstown, the only question that remains is: which will have the more valuable career?
Here’s a recent history rehash of these two stalwarts:
In the virus-shortened season of 2020, Kershaw and Verlander’s fortunes flipped from the previous year, when JV won the Cy Young and Kershaw struggled (again) in the postseason. In 2020, Kershaw pitched brilliantly and Verlander made only one start before landing on the injured list.
Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery and pitched brilliantly at age 38 in 2022, while Kershaw was shelved with nagging injuries. In 2023, Kershaw had a very good season, though he once again was basically a part-time pitcher due to nagging injuries. Verlander kept rolling along in ‘23 too. In 2024, both legendary pitchers missed time due to injury.
In 2025, Kershaw has essentially become Ted Lyons, the great old White Sox hurler. Late in his career, Lyons’ was called “Sunday Teddy” because he basically pitched once a week. There are about 26 weeks in an MLB season, and Kershaw will make 21-22 starts.
Verlander debuted with the Giants in 2025, and spent a month on the Injured List in May/June with arm soreness. He came back and basically served as a once-per-week starter. He struggled with his command, but proved his ability to be a pitcher not a thrower: his ERA from mid-August to mid-September has been 1.91 in seven starts. Verlander will end up having a slightly more valuable 2025 campaign, mostly because his K/BB ration is better than Kershaw at this point in their careers, and he logs more innings.
Of the five great starting pitchers of the modern era (Kershaw,uVerlander, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Félix Hernández), Kershaw is the most unorthodox. His herky-jerk, crooked-paused-leg motion is hideous, but effective. Yet, he’s struggled to stay on the hill in his 30s. In his 20s, Kershaw averaged 29 starts, 194 innings, and a 2.36 ERA. In his 30s, the lefty has averaged 22 starts, 130 innings and a 2.77 ERA.
By comparison, Verlander has averaged 177 innings and 28 starts with a 3.10 ERA in his 30s and 40s. Basically, Verlander has been available to his team for three more weeks per season, and been just about as effective. He also owns the MLB record for most strikeouts in the postseason.
Kershaw hasn’t had one season as valuable as either of the top two seasons by Verlander, largely because he’s usually hurt for about a month each year. Kershaw has been dreadful in the postseason, while Verlander has been a horse, for the most part. “The Claw” has a 4.49 ERA with 17 quality starts in 32 postseason starts. Verlander has a 3.58 ERA with 18 quality starts in 37 starts in the postseason. Kershaw has one title, JV has two. Both have an MVP award to go with three Cy Young awards.
You can make a case for the Dodger as a better pitcher than Verlander. For prime value he was better than JV, and he was roughly the same in peak value. But, Verlander will end up with slightly more career value. Ultimately they are basically even, and our All-Time Pitcher Rankings show that.
We have Kershaw ranked 22nd all-time, lumped in a group with Verlander (20th), Curt Schilling (21st), and Fergie Jenkins (24th). The four are so close in our rankings that you could flip them any way you want. The quartet are ahead of a small group that includes Mike Mussina and Scherzer, but behind the group that features Gaylord Perry, Cy Young, Robin Roberts, and Christy Mathewson.
Essentially, look at it this way: if you were going to create five-man starting rotations using the top-rated pitchers in history, you’d get to team four or five before Verlander and Kershaw were in the mix. They are transcendent pitchers: clearly the two best starters so far in the 21st century, though not too far ahead of Scherzer.
It’s usage patterns that keep Kershaw and Verlander from being along the top tier that includes Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, and Roger Clemens, to name the most recent great pitchers to come before the 21st century aces.
