The Boston Red Sox are in the middle of the playoff chase. At this point, every game from Fenway to road series seems to be a must-win. Boston sits at 82-69, third in the AL Wild Card standings, with a slim margin behind the New York Yankees and Houston Astros.
There are many strategies put in place to make the most out of the situation. There are different options to choose from, but all of them need to be precise, disciplined, and adaptive. In this article, we’ll lay out some of those strategies.
Wild Card Picture & Recent Trajectory
Boston is now 1½ games behind the Yankees for the top AL Wild Card spot, and a couple of games behind Houston. This position was hard-won after a few major successes in the mid-season. However, a poor result against the Blue Jays begs the question: Are the Red Sox ready to face tougher opponents?
If Boston and Toronto finish with the same record, the Blue Jays would advance because of their head-to-head score. This puts extra pressure on the team ahead of the late September games. Boston can’t just split; they need to take the series to stay afloat and send a message.
Key Arms and Pitching Strategy
The best strategy Boston has on its hands is the rotation and the bullpen. However, it’s also facing both injuries and fatigue, and this quality is tested to its limits.
Rotation: Starters like Garrett Crochet had a huge outing against the Yankees (12 strikeouts over six innings). It proves that Boston can dominate its opponents. However, several starting pitchers are injured and not at their best.
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman has been a reliable closer for a while now, and he has had an especially strong season this year. However, Greg Weissert has been inconsistent, and the ability to hold the lead may not be as good as it seems on paper.
Offense, Defense, and Injuries
For a while now, the public has had the information about the injured players, and those who make wagers take that information into account. This is the case for wagers beyond baseball; for instance, the best US Open betting sites have also started including info about the injured players. Grigor Dimitrov suffered an injury recently, and gambling sites have already adjusted their odds for his upcoming matches. Dmitrov withdrew from a match against Sinner, and it was announced that he suffered a partial tear of his pectoralis major muscle, which will affect his abilities for months to come.
The Boston Red Sox have had a few problems with injuries for a while now. Key players, such as Roman Anthony, are out with an oblique injury. Liam Hendriks has a hip inflammation, and Richard Fitts, Brennan Bernardino, and several others are also injured.
Schedule & Matchups: Where the Win Opportunities Lie
The schedule is a mixture of favorable and rather difficult games.
- A three-game series vs. the Blue Jays (Sept 23-25), which will be the pivotal game.
- Other games vs. teams lower in the standings or already eliminated may serve as “soft spots” for Boston.
- Home games at Fenway are an advantage, given how great the crowd is. There’s also less travel fatigue to worry about.
Psychological & Managerial Tactics
There are also psychological tactics involved in the team’s approach towards the upcoming games. These are often used by other teams as well, and they are somewhat simple but effective.
One game mindset refers to focusing on the next opponent only and not worrying about how the outcome will affect your chances later on.
Veterans who have been with the team for a while have a leadership role within the team and help younger players stay focused and motivated.
Alex Cora’s choices will be under scrutiny more than ever before, and using analytics for matchup data to inform those choices will be more valuable than ever.
Possible Scenarios
There are a few possible scenarios that could unfold with the upcoming games. These include:
- The Red Sox could win against the Blue Jays and other important upcoming games. This would lead to an outright claim to the top Wild Card seed and even challenges for the division.
- A more realistic option is to secure one of the Wild Card spots. Most likely it would be the fourth or the fifth one.
- Catching up to the Blue Jays for the East division title is a long shot, but it’s still possible.
The Boston Red Sox find themselves under a lot of pressure. There are just a few games ahead of them in the run for the Wild Card spot. Their path to October will require them to win all the games in which they are favored to win, as well as a few of those that are expected to be tough.
The late push isn’t only about getting into the playoffs; it will also help the team define itself and become more confident about the ways it can use its roster. It remains to be seen if it can transform itself so fast.
