The Baseball Hall of Fame has released the eight-player ballot for the Contemporary Era committee. Among the names is a Yankee legend, one still in uniform, and still very much in the memory of many Yankee fans.
Don Mattingly. the 1985 American League Most Valuable Player, is among the players who will be considered for election to the Hall of Fame in December. If 12 of the 15 people in the committee vote for him, Mattingly will be an inductee.
For many years, Mattingly’s candidacy has been a point of contention. On one side are those who see his tremendous peak value. On the other are critics who can’t get past his sharp decline following a chronic back injury that impacted his performance after his 29th birthday.
But a deep look at his career and his numbers reveals that this former All-Star and Gold Glove winner (and batting champion) is in rare company in baseball history.
Best Argument for Mattingly
Through the age of 28, Don Mattingly posted a 144 OPS+, a figure surpassed by only five first basemen in history (Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Johnny Mize, Hank Greenberg, and George Sisler).
Through 28, he won an MVP, a batting title, five Gold Gloves, and was the highest-paid player in baseball.
Consider this: only 14 players have ever been an All-Star five or more times, won eight or more Gold Glove Awards, AND won an MVP award. Among those 14 players, all but two are in the Hall of Fame, and one of them is Don Mattingly.
Only Players to Win an MVP, 8+ Gold Gloves, & Be an All-Star 5+ Times
| PLAYER | ALL-STAR | GOLD GLOVE | MVP AWARD |
| Willie Mays – HOF | 24 | 12 | 1954, 1965 |
| Brooks Robinson – HOF | 18 | 16 | 1964 |
| Roberto Clemente – HOF | 15 | 12 | 1966 |
| Johnny Bench – HOF | 14 | 10 | 1970, 1972 |
| Barry Bonds | 14 | 8 | 1990, 92-93, 2001-04 |
| Ivan Rodriguez – HOF | 14 | 13 | 1999 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. – HOF | 13 | 10 | 1997 |
| Mike Schmidt – HOF | 12 | 10 | 1980, 1981, 1986 |
| Ryne Sandberg – HOF | 10 | 9 | 1984 |
| Ichiro Suzuki – HOF | 10 | 10 | 2001 |
| Bob Gibson – HOF | 9 | 9 | 1968 |
| Andre Dawson – HOF | 8 | 8 | 1987 |
| Don Mattingly | 6 | 8 | 1985 |
| Keith Hernandez | 5 | 11 | 1979 |
How about this list? Players who have won an MVP award, been an All-Star and Gold Glove winner 5+ times, and won a batting title:
| Willie Mays | Keith Hernandez | Ichiro Suzuki |
| Roberto Clemente | Don Mattingly | Barry Bonds |
| Carl Yastrzemski | Larry Walker | Mookie Betts |
Mattingly was, for the first eight years of his career, one of the four or five best players or hitters in the game. It was not debatable. Then his back started to bark and his surefire Hall of Fame career came off the rails. Where he had once spent three hours a day in the batting cage, Mattingly was barely able to swing the bat before games and his power virtually disappeared. In the 1990s, Mattingly succumbed to his soreness and gradually retreated into the background.
But is it fair to degrade Mattingly’s Hall of Fame chances because he had the misfortune of having all of his great seasons before he was 30? Kirby Puckett exited the game due to injury abruptly and just about the same amount of accolades: Mattingly had 17 combined All-Star selections, batting titles, Gold Gloves, and MVPs, and so did Puckett.
Sandy Koufax had six great seasons. That’s all. He’s considered one of baseball’s greatest pitchers and was elected to Cooperstown in his first chance on the ballot.
Mattingly’s prime (five best consecutive seasons) stands among the greatest hitters of the post-expansion era (1961+). From 1984 to 1988, he batted .332 and averaged 206 hits, 44 doubles, 27 homers, 114 RBI, only 35 strikeouts, and a 150 OPS+.
Compare that to George Brett‘s best five consecutive seasons: .330 average, 186 hits, 37 doubles, 13 triples, 17 HR, 88 RBI, 151 OPS+. I’m not saying Mattingly had the career that Brett did. But in their prime, at the very height of their careers, Mattingly was nearly as dangerous as Brett at the plate, if not as dangerous. He was certainly more prolific.
Mattingly Compared to Hall of Fame First Basemen and Candidates
| PLAYER | WAR | WAR7 | WAR5C | WAR3 | JAWS |
| Don Mattingly | 42.4 | 35.7 | 28.8 | 19.9 | 39.1 |
| Fred McGriff | 52.6 | 36.3 | 26.6 | 18.1 | 44.3 |
| Eddie Murray | 68.7 | 38.9 | 28.7 | 19.2 | 53.8 |
| Orlando Cepeda | 50.1 | 34.5 | 23.5 | 18.1 | 42.3 |
| Gil Hodges | 43.9 | 34.2 | 26.3 | 17.4 | 39.1 |
| Steve Garvey | 38.1 | 28.3 | 22.9 | 14.4 | 33.2 |
Clearly, Mattingly is a “high-peak, prime value” candidate. His career Wins Above Replacement ranks below Norm Cash and Dolph Camilli, two fine first basemen who have basically no support for the Hall of Fame. But career value is not Mattingly’s best case for Cooperstown.
Donnie Baseball has a better 7-year peak (WAR7) than Orlando Cepeda or Gil Hodges, both of whom have a plaque in the Hall of Fame gallery. Mattingly’s career WAR is comparable to Hodges.
WAR5C represents a player’s best five consecutive seasons. Mattingly shines there: his WAR5C is higher than Fred McGriff, a player elected by this committee three years ago. It’s virtually the same as Eddie Murray, his contemporary.
In WAR3, the top three seasons in WAR, Mattingly is ahead of Murray, McGriff, Cepeda, Hodges, and Steve Garvey, a player who consistently receives consideration by Hall of Fame “second chance” committees.
Mattingly’s WAR5C ranks fourth among first basemen eligible for the Hall of Fame but not elected, trailing only Jason Giambi, Mark McGwire, and Mark Teixeira.
Mattingly deserves election to Cooperstown
Mattingly would not be the worst first baseman to be elected to the Hall of Fame. His peak and prime performance dwarfs several Hall of Famers, namely Jim Bottomley and George Kelly. He had similar or superior numbers to Gil Hodges. His peak was better than Tony Perez and comparable to Fred McGriff.
When we evaluate Mattingly as a player, he is much better than a handful of players from his own era who have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Mattingly has better peak numbers than Jim Rice. He was far superior to Harold Baines: in career WAR, peak WAR, and prime WAR. Baines was elected basically because of his longevity. But never when the two players were in the same league, did observers think Baines was as good a hitter or player as Mattingly.
As an offensive performer, Mattingly was at least as valuable in his prime as Kirby Puckett and Andre Dawson. He got more MVP votes than either of those two players during his playing career.
Mattingly is one of two first basemen to win as many as five Gold Gloves. The other is Keith Hernandez (who deserves Hall of Fame consideration, but was not the offensive player Mattingly was).
Adding to his list of accomplishments, Mattingly won three Silver Slugger awards, and he was The Sporting News MLB Player of the Year.
If players can be elected for longevity (Baines, Jim Kaat, Ted Simmons) and others can be selected for peak performance even if they have have short or injury-marred careers (Koufax, Tony Oliva, Bruce Sutter), why can’t Mattingly be rewarded for his amazing stretch in the 1980s?
It’s time to add another Yankee first baseman to the Hall of Fame. Lou Gehrig needs a friend.
